The Nature, Causes, Targets, and Timing of the 9/11 Terrorist Attack upon the United States   Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations Derived from the Macrogenome Project and the Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) System   Dr. Edward E. Ayoub         Executive Summary.. 3 The Circumstances Surrounding the 9/11 Terrorist Attack.. 4 The Silver Bullet.. 7 Appendix A: Potential Targets of Terrorism.. 10 Appendix B: The Tragic Cost-Efficiency of Terrorism.. 12 Appendix C: The Macrogenome Project™... 14 Appendix D: Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence™... 16 Appendix E: MI2 Benefits.. 18         Copyright © 2004 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved.   Macrogenome™, Macrogenome Project™, and Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence™ are trademarks of Macroknow Inc. Other product, service, or company names mentioned in this Website may be the trademarks of their respective owners. This document is available in Microsoft® Word format at http://www.macroknow.com/mi2/report-911.doc, and in html format at http://www.macroknow.com/mi2/report-911.htm.   The Macrogenome Project™ and Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence™ are described at http://www.macroknow.com/felicity/.   Intellectual intelligence data pertaining to the 9/11 terrorist attack upon the United States are published in the 9/11 Security Alert bulletin at http://www.macroknow.com/mi2/bulletin-S911-T.htm.   MK/EEA-270404 UPDATE-010504     DISCLAIMER   The Macroknow Indices (Indices), including the Global Uncertainty Indices, the Macroknow Terrorism Alert Indices, and the associated probability distributions and threat level codes (Codes) are the products of ongoing Macroknow Exploratory and Experimental Research. The Indices and the Codes are provided for information purposes only. The Indices and the Codes provide warnings of potential threats; they do not provide specific information about:   ·        The threats' causes, potential gravity, and potential consequences; ·        The threats' purposes, potential targets, geographical locations, and timings; ·        The security procedures, the protective measures, and the responses the threats call for; and ·        How to manage the threats.   THE INDICES AND THE CODES, BEING EXPERIMENTAL OR EXPLORATORY, MUST BE INTERPRETED AND USED WITH EXTREME CAUTION. YOU (AND NOT MACROKNOW) ASSUME TOTAL RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK FOR YOUR USE OF THE MACROKNOW SITES.           Executive Summary   Both the timing and the targets of the 9/11 terrorist attack upon the United States were predictable.   The timing of the 9/11 attack could have been derived from indices such as the MI2 Economic Uncertainty and Terrorism Alert Indices for the time period preceding the attack. The choice of the targets — the World Trade Center and the Pentagon — could have been derived directly from the military philosophy of Carl Von Clausewitz.   MI2 uncertainty and terrorism indices for the 5-month time period preceding the 9/11 attack suggest that U.S. intelligence, law enforcement, and defense organizations could have had, perhaps as much as, 25 days to counter the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, had they had access to the MI2 system.   Clausewitz’s principles of war show clearly that the most devastating attack upon the United States consists of a convergent, cohesive, and concentrated blow aimed at the “center of gravity” of its financial institutions — including the World Trade Center. From the attacker’s point of view, great success would also require synchronous blows aimed at the protectors of these financial institutions — The Pentagon and the Commander in Chief.   The government of the United States failed to protect its citizens on September 11, 2001, not because its top intelligence or defense experts were ignorant of Clausewitz’s theory, but because they could not fathom that Arabs would be capable of bold, audacious (albeit evil) Clausewitzian military thinking.   To avoid another catastrophic terrorist attack, the United States must avoid such circumstances as surrounded the 9/11 terrorist attack, especially before the next recession — which will occur, in all probability, around 2010.         The Circumstances Surrounding the 9/11 Terrorist Attack   "Nowadays, anyone who wishes to combat lies and ignorance and to write the truth must overcome at least five difficulties. He must have the courage to write the truth when truth is everywhere opposed; the keenness to recognize it, although it is everywhere concealed; the skill to manipulate it as a weapon; the judgment to select those in whose hands it will be effective; and the running to spread the truth among such persons.” Bertolt Brecht, Writing the Truth: Five Difficulties[1].   The 9/11 terrorist attack followed two series of world events:   A series of summits (FTAA, EU, and G8), involving governments, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and multinational corporations.   A concomitant series of massive anti-globalization protests (Quebec City, Gothenburg, and Genoa).   The summits had a bold and audacious agenda: the “globalization” of finance and free trade under the “rule of law”.   Unfortunately, the sponsors of the summits failed to incorporate the input of citizens and the checks and balances that their ambitious agenda required. As a result, large numbers of protesters in the United States, Canada, and Europe, interpreted the agenda to mean:   ·        Rulership of the world by a few transnationals. ·        Globalization of corporate greed and malfeasance. ·        Massive public and private debts. ·        Global injustice — caused by an asymmetric “rule of law” that favors lenders over borrowers on a global scale. (In theological terms, the asymmetry is codified in the Tanach, the sacred book of Judaism, as follows: “The rich rule the poor, and the borrower is the slave of the lender”[2].)   What was the impact of the above failures? The temporal distribution of the MI2 State of Mind indices for the period from March through September 2001 shows that people conceived the “globalization” agenda as essentially evil.   Ironically, the idea “globalization is evil” preceded by almost one year President George W. Bush’s state of the union address on January 29, 2002 in which he accused Iraq, Iran, and North Korea of constituting an “axis of evil.”[3]   For the MI2 distribution of people’s state of mind pre- and post-9/11, click on MI2 Case Study: Globalization[4]. Note that the distribution was turbulent, chaotic, and dominated by concerns about evil (shown in red) many months before the 9/11 terrorist attack; and that people’s concern about evil was synchronous with the FTAA, EU, and G8 summits. The expression “axis of evil”[5] was reportedly concocted by David Frum[6], the assistant to president George W. Bush for economic speechwriting, 2001-2002. Frum is a neoconservative[7]. Note that many conservatives do not agree with Frum[8].   Despite all the rhetoric at and since the summits, the government of the United States failed to protect the people of the United States from two evils:   Massive and widespread corporate malfeasance; and Catastrophic terrorism.   The government of the United States cannot afford to fail again.   Another catastrophic attack upon the United States (e.g., a terrorist nuclear attack upon New York City) risks weakening — even destroying — the Hobbesian covenant between the people and the sovereign[9]. People may refuse to submit to the sovereign’s law — or continue to hand over their rights and powers to the sovereign — if the sovereign continues to fail to protect them.   To avoid another catastrophic terrorist attack, the United States must avoid such circumstances as surrounded the 9/11 terrorist attack, especially before the next recession — which will occur, in all probability, around 2010.         The Silver Bullet   “The threat reporting that we received in the Spring and Summer of 2001 was not specific as to time, nor place, nor manner of attack. . . [T]here was no silver bullet that could have prevented the 9/11 attacks” (emphasis added). National Security Advisor Dr. Condoleezza Rice[10].   Many believe that the 9/11 terrorist attack was a “bolt from the blue attack” upon the United States. However, both the timing and the targets of the attack were predictable.   The timing of the 9/11 attack could have been derived from indices such as the MI2 Economic Uncertainty and Terrorism Alert Indices for the time period preceding the attack. (The MI2 Economic Uncertainty Index, for example, reached the record level of 97.8% on August 9, 2001.)   MI2 uncertainty and terrorism indices for the 5-month time period preceding the 9/11 attack suggest that U.S. intelligence, law enforcement, and defense organizations could have had, perhaps as much as, 25 days to counter the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001, had they had access to the MI2 system.   For evidence, click on MI2 Case Study: 9/11 – Likelihood and Destructive Potential of Terrorism[11]. Note the buildup of the terrorism threat level to code RED. And note that the probability of code RED or ORANGE climbed to 60% on September 6, 2001 — 4 days before the 9/11 terrorist attack. Click also on Global Security Alert: 9/11[12] to see the MI2 terrorism alert leading indicators and two charts depicting the likelihood of terrorism and the destructive potential of terrorism for the period from July 1, 2001 through October 1, 2001.   The choice of the targets — the World Trade Center and the Pentagon — could have been derived directly from the military philosophy of Carl Von Clausewitz.   Clausewitz’s principles of war[13] dictate as follows:   The blow against the "enemy" must be convergent, cohesive, massively concentrated, and must come as a total surprise. This is only possible if the attacker can act as a whole — and spontaneously. The blow must be directed against the enemy's "center of gravity."[14] The attacker must seek "great success" instead of "minor conquest" — "by constantly seeking out the center of his [the enemy's] power, by daring all to win all."[15] In the case of the United States, the center of power is money. Money is the "key to the country."[16] Much money (real and fictional) resides in "fortresses"[17] — here, financial institutions. Therefore, the center of gravity of the United States is the center of gravity of its financial institutions.   The above principles show clearly that the most devastating attack upon the United States consists of a convergent, cohesive, and concentrated blow aimed at the center of gravity of its financial institutions — including the World Trade Center. From the attacker’s point of view, great success would also require synchronous blows aimed at the protectors of these financial institutions — The Pentagon and the Commander in Chief.   The above two bullets are not the result of 20/20 hindsight; they are adapted here mutatis mutandis from a book Dr. Edward E. Ayoub published on June 20, 1998 titled World War III against the Money Trust?[18] in which he warned politicians, legislators, and the leaders of the Money Trust about the potential disasters they might have to confront if the inequities, failures, and predatory practices of the marketplace were intensified and globalized.   The government of the United States failed to protect its citizens on September 11, 2001, not because its top intelligence or defense experts were ignorant of Clausewitz’s theory, but because they could not fathom that Arabs would be capable of bold, audacious (albeit evil) Clausewitzian military thinking.       Appendix A: Potential Targets of Terrorism   FINANCIAL AND CORPORATE   U.S. financial system: clearing and settlement activities, and backup systems[19] Stock markets and backup systems Central banks Multinational headquarters and data centers Manufacturing facilities Worldwide hotel chains Business executives   CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE   Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite network[20] Energy and power generation and distribution systems Petrochemical facilities, refineries, pipelines, and oil tankers Nuclear power plants Nuclear waste storage facilities Chemical manufacturing, storage, treatment, and transportation systems Bridges, tunnels, airports, seaports, and railway systems Airplanes and cargo planes Internet and telecommunications facilities Water supply and delivery systems Food supply and delivery systems   GOVERNMENT   Government buildings Embassies and foreign outposts Landmarks and national symbols Politicians and diplomats Intelligence personnel Government officials   MILITARY   The Pentagon Military command, control, communications, intelligence Military facilities Navy ships Military personnel           Appendix B: The Tragic Cost-Efficiency of Terrorism   Opportunities for global economic growth have never been greater than they are today. However, the world is getting more interdependent, more complex, and more dangerous.   The "centers of gravity" of world finance, commerce, industry, and trade have become the target of determined radicals. And the cost-efficiency of terrorism can be astronomical.   Nineteen hijackers crashed four airliners on September 11, 2001, into the North and South Towers of the World Trade Center in New York, the Pentagon, and Stony Creek Township, Pennsylvania[21].   The total number of victims of the 9/11 terrorist attack is 2996[22]. As at April 28, 2004, the average deceased victims awards after offsets was $1,880,240; and the median deceased victims awards after offsets was $1,459,163[23].   The insurance losses from the September 11 attack have been estimated at about $50 billion[24]. The cost of the attack was estimated at a mere $400 thousand[25]. The efficiency of the attack was therefore a tragic 1.25x106.   The Tragic Cost-Efficiency of the 9/11 Attack Category Cost of Attack Losses from Attack Efficiency Human 19 2996 1.57x102 Financial $400 thousand $50 billion 1.25x106   The potential for conflicts, political violence, and economic risks has become inordinate. Unfortunately, there are still no automatic means allowing corporations and governments to detect, intercept, or interdict catastrophic world events.   What happens in Jerusalem, Islamabad, New Delhi, Beijing, Buenos Aires, or a "cave" in Afghanistan, affects the State of the World, and the state of the world affects governments and corporations.   Government and corporate leaders can no longer afford to ignore the State of the World — as encoded in the people’s State of Mind. To exploit economic and social opportunities for growth on a global scale, leaders must use measures, not only of the State of the Market, but, more importantly, of the people’s State of Mind.       Appendix C: The Macrogenome Project™   " . . . [E]verything which is to happen to anyone is already virtually included in his nature or concept, as all the properties are contained in the definition of a circle . . . " Gottfried W. Leibniz, Discourse on Metaphysics[26].   The Macrogenome Project[27] is Macroknow's intellectual analogue of the Genome Project. It is to the thinking mind what the Genome Project is to living matter. The project's domains include philosophy, political economy, law, science, and theology (Mosaic-Solomonic, Hindu-Vedic, Taoistic, Buddhist, Confucian, Christian, Gnostic, and Islamic).   The inspiration for the Macrogenome Project is Leibniz's deep insight into the nature of the soul as genetic seed and law.   PROJECT GOALS   To map the entire intellectual genetic structure of the dominant philosophies and worldviews that shape our world.   To identify, scrutinize, and compare the ideas, concepts, notions, and thought species and subspecies that make up the dominant philosophies that underlie current policies and legislation. To identify common substructures.   To discover, characterize, and categorize the codes, structures, lineages, and variants of the thought species; and to correlate these with origins, intents, and effects.   To locate, characterize, and catalogue defects in logic and intellection; and to correlate, cross-link, and cross-reference the defects with associated political disorder, social diseases, and economic conflicts and destruction.   To build taxonomic, structure, and modeling databases for grounding philosophies. And to develop analytical tools and expert systems to model, simulate, and predict the outcomes of policies from their genomic structure and associated probabilistic confidences.   To issue timely political, economic, and financial alerts and advisories to political, business, and community leaders.   To promote the worldviews that benefit humankind, especially philosophies that promote and secure authentic freedom and wealth for all.   The Macrogenome Project is an ongoing Macroknow project. The project will generate several open Internet resources. General findings and conclusions will be available to people with access to the Internet free of charge. For a sample Macroknow Education Resource, see http://www.macroknow.com/books. Sophisticated intellection technologies, databases, expert systems, and intelligence systems are commercialized. For Macroknow Services, see http://www.macroknow.com/services.htm.         Appendix D: Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence™   Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence[28] (MI2) is a web-based intelligence system that measures and analyzes what people are thinking in terms of what they value most -- every day, on a global scale.   People desire more freedom, more goodness, more truth, more money, and more justice. They desire less slavery, less evil, less deceit, and less debt. The desires can be facilitated or obstructed by governments, corporations, economic institutions, social institutions, science and technology, religion, the law, and world events.   The success and security of organizations depend on knowing and understanding what thought variables are at play, their intensities, their correlations, and their commercial and security meanings -- especially the "constructive" and "destructive factors" and security alerts that require immediate executive attention.     Thought Variables Thought Group Desire More Desire Less Facilitators/ Inhibitors Autonomy Freedom Slavery   Ethics Good Evil   Logic Truth Deceit   Money Money Debt Bankers Capitalism Trade Justice Justice   Law Science & Technology     Arithmetic Science Technology Religion     Religion   MI2 also provides daily uncertainty and terrorism indices:   ·        Moral and economic uncertainty indices ·        Terrorism alert indices ·        Probability distributions for the likelihood of terrorism and for the destructive potential of terrorism, by threat level.         Appendix E: MI2 Benefits   MI2 features commercial and security intelligence suites, expanded databases, increased analytical, statistical, and graphical power, advanced security visualization, and substantial interactivity.   MI2 helps you:   Measure and Track What Matters Most to People. You get daily empirical intelligence on people's most important issues, concerns, and values. And you get factual interpretations of world events, "causes", and "consequences." This intellectual intelligence allows you: (1) to understand and decipher the situation you experience, its structure, and its meaning; (2) to perfect your business and security plans, strategies, and tactics; and (3) to marshal your resources on what matters most. Track Security Threats Before They Materialize. MI2 helps you anticipate and track major economic, commercial, and security threats -- smartly, efficiently, and cost-effectively. Armed with intelligence information about economic uncertainty, the likelihood of terrorism, and the destructive potential of terrorism, you can determine: (1) when to issue internal security alerts; (2) when to increase surveillance; (3) when to deploy security measures; and (4) when to execute contingency and emergency plans and procedures. Predict Commercial Opportunities and Security Threats. No Surprises. "What people are thinking" and "why" impacts what they do, and what they do can impact your organization's future. By knowing what people are thinking, you can anticipate what they will do. By predicting opportunities and threats you enhance your organization's success, security, and well-being. Develop New Ways of Coping. MI2 historical data correlate people's state of mind with events and with constructive and destructive factors, on a daily basis. Highly interactive statistical and analytical dashboards and graphical tools help you: (1) extract important hidden relations and meaning (political, economic, commercial, and philosophical); (2) visualize critical and vital factors; and (3) develop new ways of coping with opportunities, challenges, and threats. Control Your Organization's Destiny. Smarter, focused, well-directed, and well-timed deployment of resources on critical and vital issues and concerns means greater control over your organization's destiny. Be Ready to Seize Opportunities and Block Threats. Intelligence, understanding, predictability, coping, and control allow you to prepare and be ready: (1) to seize opportunities early in the game; and (2) to block and counter threats, even exploit them for benefit, before they can harm. Become More Secure and More Successful.       Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. The Nature, Causes, Targets, and Timing of the 9/11 Terrorist Attack upon the United States. Some Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations Derived from the Macrogenome Project and the Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) System. Copyright © 2004 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Are Reserved.                 [1] Bertolt Brecht (1898-1956). "Writing the Truth: Five Difficulties." Translated by Richard Winston. Originally published in the United States in Twice A Year (New York), Tenth Anniversary Issue, 1948. Translation reprinted in Bertolt Brecht, Galileo. Edited and with an Introduction by Eric Bentley, 1966. English version by Charles Laughton. Arvid Englind, 1940. Bertolt Brecht, 1952 (Indiana University Press). New York, NY: Grove Press. (Appendix A, at 133-150.)   [2] Tanach, Proverbs 22:7.   [3] President Delivers State of the Union Address. The President's State of the Union Address, The United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., 29-Jan-02. The White House, News Release. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.   [4] Edward E. Ayoub. MI2 Case Study: Globalization. Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence. Toronto, ON: Macroknow. http://www.macroknow.com/felicity/frm-case-studies-globalization.htm.   [5] Timothy Noah. David Frum's "Axis of Evil." Authorial vanity strikes the Bush White House. Slate, 5-Feb-02. http://slate.msn.com/id/2061695.   [6] David Frum’s Web site. http://www.davidfrum.com.   [7] Edward E. Ayoub. Neoconservatives in the News. Toronto, ON: Macroknow, 2004.   [8] See, for example the article by Taki Theodoracopulos. The Bum Frum. The American Conservative, 21-Apr-03. http://www.amconmag.com/04_21_03/taki.html.   [9] Thomas Hobbes. Leviathan. Edited with an Introduction by C.B. MacPherson. Introduction, C.B. MacPherson, 1968. London, England, 1985.   [10] National Security Advisor Dr. Condoleezza Rice, Opening Remark, The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, April 8, 2004. http://www.9-11commission.gov/hearings/hearing9/rice_statement.pdf.   [11] Edward E. Ayoub. MI2 Case Study: 9/11 – Likelihood and Destructive Potential of Terrorism. Toronto, ON: Macroknow, 2004. http://www.macroknow.com/felicity/frm-case-studies-911.htm.   [12] Edward E. Ayoub. Global Security Alert: 9/11. Chart 1.3  Likelihood of Terrorism and Chart 1.4  Destructive Potential. 9/11 Security Alert Bulletin. Toronto, ON: Macroknow, 2004. http://www.macroknow.com/mi2/bulletin-S911-T.htm.   [13] Carl von Clausewitz. On War. Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret, with Introductory Essays by Peter Paret, Michael Howard, and Bernard Brodie, and a Commentary by Bernard Brodie, 1976. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976, 1989. For listings and discussions of Clausewitz's "principles of war," see Books 6 and 8, especially, pp. 357-359 (Attack and Defense), pp. 360-362 (The Relationship between Attack and Defense in Tactics), pp.363-366 (The Relationship between Attack and Defense in Strategy), pp. 367-369 (Convergence of Attack and Divergence of Defense), and pp. 617-637 (The Plan of a War Designed to Lead to the Total Defeat of the Enemy).   [14] Ibid., pp. 484-498 (Defense of a Theater of Operations), especially p. 485 and p. 489 ("center of gravity . . . most effective target for a blow").   [15] Ibid., pp. 596 (center of power).   [16] Ibid., pp. 456-459 (The Key to the Country).   [17] Ibid., pp. 393-403 (Fortresses), and pp, 551-554 (Attack on Fortresses).   [18] Edward E. Ayoub. World War III against the Money Trust? Toronto, ON: Macroknow, 1998. http://www.macroknow.com/ww3-0.htm.   [19] See Statement of Chairman Alan Greenspan. The state of the banking industry. Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, April 20, 2004. The Federal Reserve Board. http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Testimony/2004/20040420/default.htm.   [20] Ambassador L. Paul Bremmer III and The Honorable Edwin Meese III. Defending the American Homeland. The Heritage Foundation Homeland Security Task Force. The Heritage Foundation, January 2002. http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandDefense/Project.cfm. (Executive Summary, p.2.) http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandDefense/loader.cfm?url=/commonspot/security/getfile.cfm&PageID=9712.   [21] U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Press Release, September 14, 2001. http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/091401hj.htm.   [22] Confirmed dead: 2948; reported dead: 24; reported missing: 24; total: 2996. Alex Spektor. September 11, 2001 Victims. April 4, 2003. http://www.september11victims.com/september11victims.   [23] September 11th Victim Compensation Fund of 2001. United States Department of Justice. (Compensation for Deceased Victims, Table I  General Award Statistics (last updated April 28, 2004).) http://www.usdoj.gov/victimcompensation/payments_deceased.html.   [24] Joseph B. Treaster, The Race to Predict Terror's Cost, NYT, September 1, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/business/yourmoney/01TERR.html.   [25] Nicholas D. Kristof, A Toast to Moral Clarity, NYT, Op/Ed, December 27, 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/27/opinion/27KRIS.html.   [26] G.W. Leibniz (1646-1716). Discourse on Metaphysics. Correspondence with Arnauld. Monadology. Introduction by Paul Janet. Translated by George Montgomery. Lasalle, IL: Open Court Publishing Company, 1902, 1995. Discourse on Metaphysics, XIII, p. 20.   [27] Dr. Edward E. Ayoub first unveiled the Macrogenome Project in Toronto on June 20, 2000. Macroknow Unveils the Macrogenome Project -- A Most Ambitious Undertaking Dedicated to Mapping the Entire Genetic Structure of the Dominant Philosophies that Shape our World. Macroknow, Press Release, June 20, 2000. http://www.macroknow.com/nr-7-0.htm.   [28] MI2 is part of the Macrogenome Project and is described at http://www.macroknow.com/felicity/.