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Likelihood of Terrorism |
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What If Simulation |
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Likelihood/Destructive Potential of Terrorism -
21-Day Forecast |
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13-Jun-07 |
Published
24-May-07 |
Rows 2234-2261 |
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Conditional Likelihood of Terrorism and Destructive Potential
Entailed in Economic Uncertainty: History, 17-May-07 - 23-May-07; 21-Day
'What If' Forecast, 24-May-07 - 13-Jun-07 |
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A
Rational Terrorist Would Prefer to Strike When (1) the Destructive Potential
Entailed in Economic Uncertainty Has Been Substantial, (2) Has Just Peaked,
and (3) the Opportunity for Code RED Terrorism Is Most Propitious. |
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What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary
Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted
with Care. |
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Listing
of the Economic Uncertainty Index, the Terrorism Alert Codes, and Associated
Distributions. See Color Codes Below. |
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Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes and
of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window |
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Legend |
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Copyright © 2001-2007 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub.
All Rights Reserved. |
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Copyright © 2001-2007 by Macroknow Inc. All
Rights Reserved. |
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A6-24-May-07 |
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