Economic/Moral Uncertainty

What If Simulation

Uncertainty/Likelihood of Terrorism Indices - 21-0ay Predictions

13-Jun-07

Published 24-May-07

Conditional Economic and Moral Uncertainties: History, 1-Apr-07 - 23-May-07; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 24-May-07 - 13-Jun-07

What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.

The Macroknow Economic Uncertainty Index climbed to a record 99.2% on 23-Jul-04. A significant increase in the Economic Uncertainty forebodes a significant increase in the destructive potential of possible future terrorist attacks. Note that the Terrorism Alert Indices are derived from the Economic Uncertainty Index and not from the Moral Uncertainty Index. The thresholds for the EXTREME (Code X, RED) and VERY HIGH (Code V, ORANGE) threat level codes for the ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX have been calibrated using two major world events, 9/11 and Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. 9/11 was preceded by persistent code RED Economic Uncertainty signals, and Israel's incursion by persistent code ORANGE signals.

A3-24-May-07