21-Day Security Alert Simulation     What If Simulation        
  Destructive Potential/Propitiousness for Terrorism     16-May-07 Ć 5-Jun-07 Published 24-May-07        
CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECAST, 24-MAY-07 - 13-JUN-07
CONDITIONAL FORECAST. Should the Mindshares of 15-May-07 Remain Unchanged, the Following Would Likely Happen. The Economic Uncertainty Would Fall from 95.8% (Very High) on 16-May-07 to 91.7% (High) on 5-Jun-07. The Extreme Destructive "Potential" (1000 or More Deaths per Incident) Would Remain Constant at 0%. The Very High Destructive "Potential" (100 or More Deaths per Incident) Would Fall from 100.0% on 16-May-07 to 76.7% on 5-Jun-07. The Propitiousness for a Code RED Terrorist Attack Would Rise from 16.7% on 16-May-07 to 53.3% on 5-Jun-07.
Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, by Threat Level: History, 1-Apr-07 - 23-May-07; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 24-May-07 - 13-Jun-07
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.
Right Arrow: History
Oval: RED ALERT
Rounded Rectangle: 'WHAT IF' STRATEGIC COUP-D'OEIL* CONDITIONAL FORECAST. A scenario is a time history generated for "hypothetical" future mindshare distributions. The scenario is a prediction of the “effects” of an assumed mindshare distribution -- specifically, in this simulation, what happens if the most recently measured mindshare distribution persists for 3 weeks. Extrapolated knowledge of the effects of a hypothetical mindshare distribution on future economic and moral uncertainties allows for better understanding and assessment of the severity of the current situation, should it continue ro persist, and for better terrorism preparedness and emergency response. Research results from the Macrogenome Project indicate that high economic uncertainty, if mismanaged by governments or corporations, can be transmuted into propitious opportunities for violence, including terrorism. The potential for destruction is entailed in economic uncertainty; it can vary from SIGNIFICANT to EXTREME. The destructive "potential" becomes destructive "reality" when political and corporate leaders mismanage high levels of economic uncertainty, creating, in the process, a propitious opportunity for terrorists to strike. EXTREME Destructive Potential means there is a "potential" for another 9/11, or more than 3,000 deaths per incident. * The concept of strategic coup-d'oeil is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.
Distribution of the Destructive Potential, by Economic Uncertainty Level: History, 1-Apr-07 - 23-May-07; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 24-May-07 - 13-Jun-07
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for 1,000 or more deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for 5-25 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).
Right Arrow: History
7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index: History, 1-Apr-07 - 23-May-07; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 24-May-07 - 13-Jun-07
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for 1,000 or more deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for 5-25 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).
Right Arrow: History
Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, by Threat Level, on 16-May-07 Down Arrow Callout: 29-Aug-05 KatrinaDestructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, on 16-May-07
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 16-May-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care. What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 16-May-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window. Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.
Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, by Threat Level, on 5-Jun-07 Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, on 5-Jun-07
Oval: Potential for 100s of Deaths per Incident
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care. What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 15-May-07 through 5-Jun-07. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window. Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.
LEGEND
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 5-Jun-07:
• RED, 53.3%
• ORANGE, 6.7%
• YELLOW, 6.7%
• BLUE, 6.7%
• GREEN, 26.7%.
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 66.7% of the Distribution.		 Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 5-Jun-07: 
• EXTREME (3,000 or More Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% 
• VERY HIGH, 76.7% 
• HIGH, 23.3% 
• SIGNIFICANT (Up to 50 Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% 
• UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%. 
EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 100.0% of the Distribution.
  Copyright © 2001-2007 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2001-2007 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved.
A1-24-May-07
M-280