| Terro= rism Alert Patterns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Correlated Patterns | High Correlation Threshold | 0.95 | 10-Mar-09 | Published 11-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How Close Are We to a Catastrophic Terrorist Attack? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| One way to answer this question is to look for similarities between the Terro= rism Alert Pattern (TAP) for the last 30, 60, or 90 days and the TAPs that culminated with major violence (terrorist or military), such as 9/11, the Israeli incursions into Palestinian territories, the bombing in Bali, the bombing of the HSBC bank headquarters in Istanbul, etc. The Terrorism Sea= rch Engine in the MI2 System identifies and ranks all TAPs that are correlated with the TAP for any time period for which there is empirical data. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The correlation coefficient for perfectly correlated TAPs is 1; the correlati= on coefficient for uncorrelated TAPs is 0. Two TAPs can be considered to be highly correlated if their correlation coefficient is higher than 0.95, a= nd highly uncorrelated if their corelation coefficient is in the range from -0.05 to 0.05. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The CURRENT 90-DAY TAP is the TAP for the time period from 11-Dec-08 through 10-Mar-09. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The PRE-9/11 90-DAY TAP that is 'best' correlated with the CURRENT TAP is the= TAP for the time period from 20-May-01 through 17-Aug-01. 9/11 occured 25 days after 17-Aug-01. The correlation's 95% confidence interval ranges from -0= .225 to 0.189 . | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The CURRENT 90-DAY TAP is 'best' correlated with the TAP for the 90-day time period from 27-Jun-06 through 24-Sep-06. The correlation's 95% confidence interval ranges from 0.733 to 0.876 . | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The 90-DAY TAP that is 'best' correlated with the 9/11 TAP is the TAP for the time period from 22-Dec-06 through 21-Mar-07. 9/11 occured 25 days after 21-Mar-07. The correlation's 95% confidence interval ranges from 0.617 to 0.814 . | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Dr. Edward E. = Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Macroknow Inc.= All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A5-11-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| M-1193 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UTAP>>S-C-T |