Most Dangerous Time Period Since 9/11

"Best" Correlated Terrorism Alert Patterns

High Correlation Threshold

0.95

14-Jan-12

Published 15-Jan-12

What Time Period Came Closest to Ending With A Catastrophic Terrorism Attack?

One way to answer this question is to look for similarities between the Terrorism Alert Pattern (TAP) for all previous 30, 60, or 90 days and the TAPs that culminated with major violence (terrorist or military), such as 9/11, the Israeli incursions into Palestinian territories, the bombing in Bali, the bombing of the HSBC bank headquarters in Istanbul, etc. The Terrorism Search Engine in the MI2 System identifies and ranks all TAPs that are correlated with the TAP for any time period for which there is empirical data.

The correlation coefficient for perfectly correlated TAPs is 1; the correlation coefficient for uncorrelated TAPs is 0. Two TAPs can be considered to be highly correlated if their correlation coefficient is higher than 0.95.

The 90-DAY TAP that is 'best' correlated with the 9/11 TAP is the TAP for the time period from 22-Dec-06 through 21-Mar-07. The correlation is 0.731. Its 95% confidence interval ranges from 0.617 to 0.814 .

A5-15-Jan-12

M-1192

UTAP>>S-C-T