| Economic/Moral Uncertainty | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Uncertainty and Terrorism Indices | 14-Jan-12 | Published 15-Jan-12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Economic and Moral Uncertainty Indexes: 1-Nov-11 - 14-Jan-12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Distribution
of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on
14-Jan-12: • EXTREME (Thousands of Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% • VERY HIGH, 10.0% U124 • HIGH, 80.0% • SIGNIFICANT (Up to 25 Deaths Per Incident), 10.0% • UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%. EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 90.0% of the Distribution. |
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| A significant increase in the Economic Uncertainty forebodes a significant increase in the destructive potential of possible future terrorist attacks. Note that the Terrorism Alert Indexes are derived from the Economic Uncertainty Index and not from the Moral Uncertainty Index. The thresholds for the EXTREME (Code X, RED) and VERY HIGH (Code V, ORANGE) threat levels for the ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX have been calibrated using two major world events, 9/11 and Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. 9/11 was preceded by persistent code RED Economic Uncertainty signals, and Israel's incursion by persistent code ORANGE signals. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2012 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2012 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A3-15-Jan-12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UTAP>>S-C-T | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||