Economic/Moral Uncertainty

Uncertainty and Terrorism Indices

19-Jul-08

Published 20-Jul-08

Economic and Moral Uncertainty Indices

A significant increase in the Economic Uncertainty forebodes a significant increase in the destructive potential of possible future terrorist attacks. Note that the Terrorism Alert Indexes are derived from the Economic Uncertainty Index and not from the Moral Uncertainty Index. The thresholds for the EXTREME (Code X, RED) and VERY HIGH (Code V, ORANGE) threat level codes for the ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX have been calibrated using two major world events, 9/11 and Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. 9/11 was preceded by persistent code RED Economic Uncertainty signals, and Israel's incursion by persistent code ORANGE signals.

A3-20-Jul-08

M-1069