Destructive Potential/Terrorism

9 CONSECUTIVE RED ALERTS

Global Security Alert

14-Jan-12

Published 15-Jan-12

Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, 1-Nov-11 - 14-Jan-12

Economic Uncertainty Registered 88.9% on 14-Jan-12. The Extreme Destructive "Potential" (Thousands of Deaths per Incident) that Is Entailed in this Uncertainty Is 0.0%; The Very High Destructive "Potential" (Hundreds of Deaths per Incident) Is 10.0%.

Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, by Threat Level, 1-Nov-11 - 14-Jan-12

The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.

Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Codes GREEN-BLUE=Advantage to Defenders; YELLOW-RED=Advantage to Attackers) (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 14-Jan-12:
• RED, 53.3%
• ORANGE, 13.3%
• YELLOW, 3.3%
• BLUE, 0.0%
• GREEN, 30.0%.
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 70.0% of the Distribution.

7/60-D Terrorism Alert Index: 1-Nov-11 - 14-Jan-12

EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for thousands of deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).

DEEP RED ALERT

Economic and Moral Uncertainty Indexes: 1-Nov-11 - 14-Jan-12

Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 14-Jan-12:
• EXTREME (Thousands of Deaths Per Incident), 0.0%
• VERY HIGH, 10.0% U124
• HIGH, 80.0%
• SIGNIFICANT (Up to 25 Deaths Per Incident), 10.0%
• UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%.
EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 90.0% of the Distribution.

A significant increase in the Economic Uncertainty forebodes a significant increase in the destructive potential of possible future terrorist attacks. Note that the Terrorism Alert Indexes are derived from the Economic Uncertainty Index and not from the Moral Uncertainty Index. The thresholds for the EXTREME (Code X, RED) and VERY HIGH (Code V, ORANGE) threat levels for the ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX have been calibrated using two major world events, 9/11 and Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. 9/11 was preceded by persistent code RED Economic Uncertainty signals, and Israel's incursion by persistent code ORANGE signals.

LEGEND

A1-15-Jan-12

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