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Terr=
orism /
Uncertainty - Track-and-Alert Forecast<=
/td>
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Conditional Forecasts on 10-Mar-09 |
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Forecast's Base Date |
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10-Mar-09 |
Published 11-Mar-09 |
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7/60=
-DAY
TERRORISM ALERT INDEX: TRACK-AND-ALERT FORECAST, 11-MAR-09 - 31-MAR-09
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Terr=
orism Alert
Index: 11-Mar-09 - 31-Mar-09 |
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Hist=
orical Data:
6-Aug-08 - 10-Mar-09. Forecast (RED curve): 11-Mar-09 - 31-Mar-09. Histor=
ical
Data Are Rendered in Gray; the 7 Most Recent 21-Day Forecasts Are Color
Coded. |
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SECURITY
MATRIX. The Security Matrix includes 7 conditional forecasts. Each foreca=
st
has a base date and a 21-day time horizon. The base dates are consecutive=
7
days for which MI2 has global mindshare observations. The observed mindsh=
are
distribution for any given date quantifies the global “STATE OF MIND”
(AWARENESS LEVELS) on that date. Each forecast elicits what would happen =
to
the Economic Uncertainty, the Destructive Potential, the Propitiousness f=
or
Terrorism, and the Terrorism Alert Index if the mindshare distribution for
the forecast's base date remains unchanged over the 21-day period followi=
ng
the base date. |
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Econ=
omic
Uncertainty Index: 11-Mar-09 - 31-Mar-09 |
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|
Hist=
orical Data:
6-Aug-08 - 10-Mar-09. Forecast (RED curve): 11-Mar-09 - 31-Mar-09. Histor=
ical
Data Are Rendered in Gray; the 7 Most Recent 21-Day Forecasts Are Color
Coded. |
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|
|
SECURITY
MATRIX. The Security Matrix includes 7 conditional forecasts. Each foreca=
st
has a base date and a 21-day time horizon. The base dates are consecutive=
7
days for which MI2 has global mindshare observations. The observed mindsh=
are
distribution for any given date quantifies the global “STATE OF MIND”
(AWARENESS LEVELS) on that date. Each forecast elicits what would happen =
to
the Economic Uncertainty, the Destructive Potential, the Propitiousness f=
or
Terrorism, and the Terrorism Alert Index if the mindshare distribution for
the forecast's base date remains unchanged over the 21-day period followi=
ng
the base date. |
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| |
Copyright © 2001-2009 by Dr. Edward E. =
Ayoub.
All Rights Reserved. |
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Copyright © 2001-2009 by Macroknow Inc.=
All
Rights Reserved. |
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TUe-11-Mar-09 |
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UWI7>>S-C-F |
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