| Terro= rism Forecast - Propitiousness for Terrorism<= /td> | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Low Probability-High Impact Terrorism | Forecast's Base Date | 10-Mar-09 | Published 11-Mar-09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11-Ma= r-09: Security Forecasts for 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7/60-= Day Terrorism Alert Index (CI7D): Confidence Intervals, 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09= | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The C= onfidence Intervals Are Derived from 7 Equally Weighted Conditional Forecasts with = Base Dates from 4-Mar-09 through 10-Mar-09. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Historical Data: 6-Aug-08 - 10-Mar-09. Forecast Confidence Levels (Lower/Upper 50%, 90%, 95%, and 99%): 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09. Historical Data Are Rendered in Gray; the Forecast Confidence Levels Are Color Coded. Two Conditional Forecasts, with Base Dates 4-Mar-09 and 10-Mar-09, Are Also Shown. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The A7D and CI7D Models Are Experimental. They Are Part of a Program to Develop a= nd Test Instruments for Detecting Propitious Opportunities for Low Probability-High Impact Terrorism with 9/11 as the Archetype. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Propi= tious Opportunity for Terrorism by Threat Level, 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Dr. Edward E. A= youb. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Macroknow Inc. = All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TPe-11-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UWI7>>S-C-F |