| Terrorism Forecast - Propitiousness for Terrorism | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Low Probability-High Impact Terrorism | Forecast's Base Date | 29-Jan-12 | Published 30-Jan-12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30-Jan-12: Security Forecasts for 30-Jan-12 - 13-Feb-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index (CI7D): Confidence Intervals, 30-Jan-12 - 13-Feb-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Confidence Intervals Are Derived from 7 Equally Weighted Conditional Forecasts with Base Dates from 23-Jan-12 through 29-Jan-12. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Historical Data: 27-Jun-11 - 29-Jan-12. Forecast Confidence Levels (Lower/Upper 50%, 90%, 95%, and 99%): 30-Jan-12 - 13-Feb-12. Historical Data Are Rendered in Gray; the Forecast Confidence Levels Are Color Coded. Two Conditional Forecasts, with Base Dates 23-Jan-12 and 29-Jan-12, Are Also Shown. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The A7D and CI7D Models Are Experimental. They Are Part of a Program to Develop and Test Instruments for Detecting Propitious Opportunities for Low Probability-High Impact Terrorism with 9/11 as the Archetype. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism by Threat Level, 30-Jan-12 - 13-Feb-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2011 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2011 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TPe-30-Jan-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UWI7>>S-C-F | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||