| MI2 = Security Matrix - Conditional Forecast Animation= | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Conditional Forecasts on 10-Mar-09 | Forecast's Base Date | 10-Mar-09 | Published 11-Mar-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11-M= ar-09: Conditional Security Forecast for 11-Mar-09 - 31-Mar-09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Horizon |
|
Prop= itiousness for Terrorism | 7/60= -Day Terrorism Alert Index | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11-Ma=
r-09 -
31-Mar-09 |
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| 10-Ma=
r-09 -
30-Mar-09 |
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| 9-Mar=
-09 - 29-Mar-09 |
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| 8-Mar=
-09 - 28-Mar-09 |
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| 7-Mar=
-09 - 27-Mar-09 |
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| 6-Mar=
-09 - 26-Mar-09 |
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| 5-Mar=
-09 - 25-Mar-09 |
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| NOTES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SECURITY MATRIX. The Security Matrix includes 7 conditi= onal forecasts. Each forecast has a base date and a 21-day time horizon. The b= ase dates are consecutive 7 days for which MI2 has global mindshare observati= ons. The observed mindshare distribution for any given date quantifies the glo= bal “STATE OF MIND” (AWARENESS LEVELS) on that date. Each forecast elicits wh= at would happen to the Economic Uncertainty, the Destructive Potential, the Propitiousness for Terrorism, and the Terrorism Alert Index if the mindsh= are distribution for the forecast's base date remains unchanged over the 21-d= ay period following the base date. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PROPITIOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR TERRORISM. Actions by Govern= ments and Business Leaders to Reduce High Economic Uncertainty Likely Create a Propitious Opportunity for Terrorists to Strike. Exploitation of this Opportunity by Terrorists Would Convert the High Destructive "Potential" Into "Real" Terrorism. Incredible or Unfounded Increases in the Official Threat Level Likely Distort the Obser= ved Terrorism Threat Level; the Induced Changes in the Observed and Forecasted Terrorism Threat Levels Are then Manufactured and Not Real. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CONDITIONS FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM. Macroknow research indicates that a PROPITIOUS OPPORTUNITY FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM (in ti= me period A) arises when the following forecasted conditions obtain: (1) the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX generates CODE RED ALARMS for period A; (2) period A follows a substantial buildup in the EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTI= AL entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY; (3) the OPPORTUNITY FOR TERRORISM (CODE RED) surges before and during A; (4) conditions 1 through 3 persist over several consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS. The conditions are necessary but not sufficient. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Security Matrix on 10-Mar-09 showed that conditions 1-3 were not all satisfied in all of the 7 consecutive daily forecasts covered by the matrix. The forecasts were also volatile. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Dr. Edward E. = Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Macroknow Inc.= All Rights Reserved. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SM-11-Mar-09 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UWI7>>S-C-F | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| M-1354 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -181 Days to 9/11 |