MI2 Security Matrix - Conditional Forecast Animation

Conditional Forecasts on 29-Jan-12

Forecast's Base Date

29-Jan-12

Published 30-Jan-12

30-Jan-12: Conditional Security Forecast for 30-Jan-12 - 19-Feb-12

Horizon

Destructive Potential

Propitiousness for Terrorism

7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index

30-Jan-12 -
19-Feb-12

29-Jan-12 -
18-Feb-12

28-Jan-12 -
17-Feb-12

27-Jan-12 -
16-Feb-12

26-Jan-12 -
15-Feb-12

25-Jan-12 -
14-Feb-12

24-Jan-12 -
13-Feb-12

NOTES

SECURITY MATRIX. The Security Matrix includes 7 conditional forecasts. Each forecast has a base date and a 21-day time horizon. The base dates are consecutive 7 days for which MI2 has global mindshare observations. The observed mindshare distribution for any given date quantifies the global “STATE OF MIND” (AWARENESS LEVELS) on that date. Each forecast elicits what would happen to the Economic Uncertainty, the Destructive Potential, the Propitiousness for Terrorism, and the Terrorism Alert Index if the mindshare distribution for the forecast's base date remains unchanged over the 21-day period following the base date.

PROPITIOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR TERRORISM. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce High Economic Uncertainty Likely Create a Propitious Opportunity for Terrorists to Strike. Exploitation of this Opportunity by Terrorists Would Convert the High Destructive "Potential" Into "Real" Terrorism. Incredible or Unfounded Increases in the Official Threat Level Likely Distort the Observed Terrorism Threat Level; the Induced Changes in the Observed and Forecasted Terrorism Threat Levels Are then Manufactured and Not Real.

CONDITIONS FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM. Macroknow research indicates that a PROPITIOUS OPPORTUNITY FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM (in time period A) arises when the following forecasted conditions obtain: (1) the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX generates CODE RED ALARMS for period A; (2) period A follows a substantial buildup in the EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY; (3) the OPPORTUNITY FOR TERRORISM (CODE RED) surges before and during A; (4) conditions 1 through 3 persist over several consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS. The conditions are necessary but not sufficient.

The Security Matrix on 29-Jan-12 showed that conditions 1-3 were not all satisfied in all of the 7 consecutive daily forecasts covered by the matrix. The forecasts were also volatile.

SM-30-Jan-12

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