| Global Security Advisory | |||||||||||||
| Destructive Potential-Terrorism Alert Code | Forecast's Base Date | 4-Feb-12 | Published 5-Feb-12 | ||||||||||
| Threat Assessment on 5-Feb-12 | |||||||||||||
| Security Indexes | Current Economic and Security Situation | Forecast/Trend [A7D Model: Pessimistic Scenario] |
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| 4-Feb-2012 | |||||||||||||
| DISTRIBUTION OF DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL ENTAILED IN ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY* | HIGH=90.0% SIGNIFICANT=10.0% | * EXTREME=Potential for Thousands of Deaths per Incident=0.0%; VERY HIGH=Potential for Hundreds of Deaths per Incident=0.0%; HIGH=Potential for Dozens of Deaths per Incident=90.0% | |||||||||||
| 15-Jan-12 - 4-Feb-12 | 5-Feb-12 - 18-Feb-12 | 19-Feb-12 | |||||||||||
| ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY | HIGH | HIGH | SIGNIFICANT | -- | -- | ||||||||
| 23-Jan-12 - 4-Feb-12 | 5-Feb-12 | 6-Feb-12 - 7-Feb-12 | 8-Feb-12 - 9-Feb-12 | 10-Feb-12 | |||||||||
| TERRORISM ALERT CODE [IF THE CURRENT SITUATION REMAINS UNCHANGED] | ORANGE | ORANGE | YELLOW | ORANGE | RED | ||||||||
| ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | |||||||||
| The Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) System implements the following Global Economics-Based Terrorism Model, developed by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. The Destructive Potential is entailed in Economic Uncertainty. Every time period with high Destructive Potential creates a propitious opportunity for violence or terrorism. Terrorists "depotentialize" the Destructive Potential when they convert the destructive "potential" into "real" or "actual" violence. The conversion can be spontaneous or delayed. The delay can be as high as 26 days, which was the case in the 9/11 attack. The opportunity for HIGH IMPACT terrorism is most propitious after the EXTREME Destructive Potential peaks at above 90%, which was also the case in the 9/11 attack. EXTREME Destructive Potential means there is a "potential" for another 9/11, or for thousands of deaths per incident. MI2 Terrorism Alert Codes BLUE and GREEN signify that Advantage likely accrues to the Defender; Terrorism Alert Codes YELLOW, ORANGE, and RED signify that Advantage likely accrues to the Attacker. DEEP RED signifies Potential Catastrophic Attack with likely Advantage to Attacker. Terrorism can be conducted by State or non-State actors. | |||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2011 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2011 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||
| GSA-5-Feb-12 | |||||||||||||
| UWI7>>S-C-F | |||||||||||||