| Global Security Advisory | |||||||||||||
| Destructive Potential-Terrorism Alert Code | Forecast's Base Date | 19-May-13 | Published 20-May-13 | ||||||||||
| Threat Assessment on 20-May-13 | |||||||||||||
| Security Indexes | Current Economic and Security Situation | Forecast/Trend [A7D Model: Pessimistic Scenario] |
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| 19-May-2013 | |||||||||||||
| DISTRIBUTION OF DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL ENTAILED IN ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY* | LOW=100.0% | * EXTREME=Potential for Thousands of Deaths per Incident=0.0%; VERY HIGH=Potential for Hundreds of Deaths per Incident=0.0%; HIGH=Potential for Dozens of Deaths per Incident=0.0% | |||||||||||
| 13-Mar-13 - 19-May-13 | 20-May-13 - 3-Jun-13 | ||||||||||||
| ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY | LOW [MORAL UNCERTAINTY N/A] | LOW [MORAL UNCERTAINTY N/A] | -- | -- | -- | ||||||||
| 3-May-13 - 19-May-13 | 20-May-13 | 21-May-13 - 24-May-13 | 25-May-13 - 28-May-13 | 29-May-13 - 30-May-13 | |||||||||
| TERRORISM ADVANTAGE CODE [IF THE CURRENT SITUATION REMAINS UNCHANGED] | RED | RED | ORANGE | YELLOW | BLUE | ||||||||
| ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER | ADVANTAGE TO DEFENDER | |||||||||
| The Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) System implements the following Global Economics-Based Terrorism Model, developed by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. The Destructive Potential is typically entailed in Economic Uncertainty – but it can also be entailed in Moral Uncertainty [Socio-Political or Socio-Cultural Uncertainty]. Every time period with high Destructive Potential creates a propitious opportunity for violence or terrorism. Terrorists "depotentialize" the Destructive Potential by converting the destructive "potential" into "real" or "actual" violence. The conversion can be spontaneous or delayed. The delay can be as high as 26 days, which was the case in the 9/11 attack. The opportunity for HIGH IMPACT terrorism is most propitious after the EXTREME Destructive Potential peaks at above 90%, which was also the case in the 9/11 attack. EXTREME Destructive Potential means there is a "potential" for another 9/11, or for thousands of deaths per incident. MI2 Terrorism Advantage Codes BLUE and GREEN signify that "Advantage" likely accrues to the Defender; Terrorism Advantage Codes YELLOW, ORANGE, and RED signify that "Advantage" likely accrues to the Attacker. DEEP RED signifies Potential Catastrophic Attack with likely "Advantage" to Attacker. Terrorism can be conducted by State or non-State actors. The analysis above features only the Destructive Potential entailed in Economic Uncertainty. | |||||||||||||
| Thresholds Updated 23-Apr-2013 | |||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2013 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||
| Copyright © 2001-2013 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||
| GSA-20-May-13 | |||||||||||||
| UWI7>>S-C-F | |||||||||||||