Global Security Advisory
Destructive Potential-Terrorism Alert Code Forecast's Base Date 31-Mar-14 Published 1-Apr-14
Threat Assessment on 1-Apr-14: Pessimistic Scenario [A7D Model]
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Security Index Current Situation Forecast/Trend
    31-Mar-2014        
DISTRIBUTION OF DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL* EXTREME=100.0% * EXTREME=Potential for Thousands of Deaths per Incident=100.0%; VERY HIGH=Potential for Hundreds of Deaths per Incident=0.0%; HIGH=Potential for Dozens of Deaths per Incident=0.0%
    16-Dec-13 - 31-Mar-14 1-Apr-14 - 5-Apr-14 6-Apr-14 - 11-Apr-14 12-Apr-14 - 15-Apr-14 --
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY EXTREME EXTREME VERY HIGH HIGH --
  31-Mar-14 1-Apr-14 - 2-Apr-14 3-Apr-14 - 15-Apr-14    
TERRORISM ADVANTAGE/RETURN ON VIOLENCE (ROV) ORANGE ORANGE RED -- --
    ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER ADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER    
The Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) System implements the following Global Economics-Based Terrorism Model, developed by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. The Destructive Potential is typically entailed in Economic Uncertainty but it can also be entailed in Moral Uncertainty [Socio-Political or Socio-Cultural Uncertainty]. Every time period with high Destructive Potential creates a propitious opportunity for violence or terrorism. Terrorists "depotentialize" the Destructive Potential by converting the destructive "potential" into "real" or "actual" violence. The conversion can be spontaneous or delayed. The delay can be as high as 26 days, which was the case in the 9/11 attack. The opportunity for HIGH IMPACT terrorism is most propitious after the EXTREME Destructive Potential peaks at above 90%, which was also the case in the 9/11 attack. EXTREME Destructive Potential means there is a "potential" for another 9/11, or for thousands of deaths per incident. MI2 Terrorism Advantage Codes BLUE and GREEN signify that "Advantage" likely accrues to the Defender; Terrorism Advantage Codes YELLOW, ORANGE, and RED signify that "Advantage" likely accrues to the Attacker. DEEP RED signifies Potential Catastrophic Attack with likely "Advantage" to Attacker. Terrorism can be conducted by State or non-State actors. The analysis above features only the Destructive Potential entailed in Economic Uncertainty.
Thresholds Updated 23-Apr-2013
Copyright 2001-2014 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2001-2014 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved.
GSA-1-Apr-14
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