Thre= at Assessment - Destructive Potential/Terrorism

High Impact Terrorism: A7D/CI7D Models<= /td>

Forecast's B

10-Mar-09

Published 11-Mar-09

Th= reat Assessment on 11-Mar-09 for 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09

The Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty Increases when the Economic Uncertainty Increases. T= ime Periods with High Destructive Potential Give Rise to Propitious Opportuni= ties for Terrorism. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce Extr= eme Uncertainty, If Mismanaged, Likely Create Propitious Opportunities for Catastrophic Terrorism. Terrorism Alert Codes RED/GREEN Indicate Advantage/Disadvantage to Attacker.

Charts A1, B1, and C1 Show Historic= al Data for 9-Feb-09 - 10-Mar-09. Charts A2, B2, and C2 Show Forecasts for 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09 Using the A7D Model. Chart C3 Shows the Confidence Intervals for the Forecasted 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index Using the C= I7D Model.

Feb-09

10-Feb-09: Israel Elections

17-Feb-09: President Obama Signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into Law

SECURITY SITUATION ON 10-MAR-09

TERRORISM FORECAST

20-Feb-09: Swat Peace Accord, Pakistan=

20-Feb-09: President Obama's Address t= o a Joint Session of Congress

26-Feb-09: FY2010 U.S. Government Budg= et: $3.55 Trillion

Mar-09

1-Mar-09: U.S. Treasury's $30 Bn Bailo= ut of AIG

2-Mar-09: AIG 2008Q4 Net Loss: RECORD = $61.7 Bn

2-Mar-09: DJIA Down 4.24% to 6,763.29<= /td>

&= nbsp;

5-Mar-09: DJIA Down 4.09% to 6,594.44<= /td>

EXTREME Destructive Potential means po= tential for 1000s of deaths per incident.

ORANGE

20-Jan-09

Feb-09

2-Feb-09: Taliban Killed ≥25 Pol= ice Officers

7-Feb-09-11-Feb-09: Wildfires Killed >200; Arson Suspected - Australia

12-Feb-09: Colgan Air Plane Crash, Buf= falo, NY

2-Feb-09: Taliban Killed ≥25 Pol= ice Officers

14-Feb-09: Female Suicide Bomber Killed ≥40 Pilgrims, Iraq

14-Feb-09: U.S. Drones Killed ≥27 Uzbeks, Pakistan

20-Feb-09: Suicide Bomber Killed 28, Pakistan

22-Feb-09: Mine Explosion Killed 74, C= hina

27-Feb-09: President Obama to End Comb= at Mission in Iraq on 31-Aug-10

Mar-09

1-Mar-09: MI5 Alert: Potential for Bank Riots in the U.K.

6-Mar-09: Car Bomb Killed at Least 12 = in Hamza, Iraq

6-8-Mar-09: 150 Tamil Rebels Killed - = Sri Lanka

8-Mar-09: Suicide Bomber Killed 28 at a Police Academy in Baghdad, Iraq

10-Mar-09: Suicide Bomber Killed 33 Ou= tside Baghdad, Iraq

THREAT SITUATION ON 10-MAR-09

THREAT FORECAST FOR THE TIME PERIOD FR= OM 11-MAR-09 THROUGH 25-MAR-09

Th= reat Assessment Model and Forecast ─ What to Monitor

Nu= merical Threat Assesment: Destructive Potential and Terrorism Alert, 11-Mar-09 - 25-Mar-09

Th= e A7D and CI7D Models Are Experimental. They Are Part of a Program to Develop and T= est Instruments for Detecting Propitious Opportunities for Low Probability-Hi= gh Impact Terrorism with 9/11 as the Archetype.

Summary

Legend

-181 Days to 9/11

De= tail

1. Destructive Potential (Chart A1)

2. Propitiousness of Opportunity for T= errorism by Threat Level (Chart B2)

3. Maximum Threat Alert (Using the Mean 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index) (Charts C2 and C3)

DPTAe-11-Mar-09

UWI7>>S-C-F

M-1353