Security/Terrorism Threat Assessment - Economic Uncertainty and Destructive Potential
-0 High Impact Terrorism: A7D/CI7D Models Forecast's Base Date 31-Mar-14 Published 1-Apr-14 X Y X 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
  Threat Assessment on 1-Apr-14 for 1-Apr-14 - 15-Apr-14 [Pessimistic Scenario]                  
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The Destructive Potential is typically entailed in Economic Uncertainty but it can also be entailed in Moral Uncertainty [Socio-Political or Socio-Cultural Uncertainty]. In the Charts below, only the Destructive Potential entailed in Economic Uncertainty is shown. The Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty Increases when the Economic Uncertainty Increases. Time Periods with High Destructive Potential Give Rise to Propitious Opportunities for Terrorism. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce Extreme Uncertainty, If Mismanaged, Likely Create Propitious Opportunities for Catastrophic Terrorism. Terrorism Advantage Codes RED/GREEN Indicate Advantage/Disadvantage to Attacker. The analysis below features only the Destructive Potential entailed in Economic Uncertainty. The Indexes Are Correlated with Selected Top News Items.
Charts A1, B1, and C1 Show Historical Data for 2-Mar-14 - 31-Mar-14. Charts A2, B2, and C2 Show Forecasts for 1-Apr-14 - 15-Apr-14 Using the A7D Model. Chart C3 Shows the Confidence Intervals for the Forecasted 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index Using the CI7D Model.
Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty
Date Event
27-Mr-2014 "IMF Announces Staff Level Agreement with Ukraine on US$14-18 Billion Stand-By Arrangement" [IMF]
16-Mar-14 Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to join Russia [RT News, 17-Mar-2014]
9-Mar-14 Malaysian jet with 239 people is missing [VOA News, 9-Mar-2014]
9-Mar-14 Iraq: suicide bomber killed at least 45 people [VOA News]
6-Mar-14 According to President Obama, a Crimean referendum would "violate international law" [VOA News]
3-Mar-14 BBC Radio: Russian forces took "operational control of the Crimea" [Quoted in VOA News]
2-Mar-14 Nigeria: bombings by suspected Islamic militants killed 74 people [VOA News, 2-Mar-2014]
1-Mar-14 China: terrorist attack at train station; ~29 people killed [UN News]
28-Feb-14 Tokyo: Bitcoin exchange files for bankruptcy protection [WSJ]
26-Feb-14 Crimea: Ukrainians who support government change and pro-Russian protesters clashed [BBC News, 27-Feb-2014]
22-Feb-14 Ukraine's parliament dismissed President Yanukovych [VOA News-Reuters-AP-AFP, 23-Feb-14]
19-Feb-14 Anti-government protest in Kyiv; at least 25 people dead [VOA News]
7-23-Feb-14 Sochi 2014 XXII Olympic Winter Games
30-Dec-13 Terrorist Attack Killed 14 in Vogograd, Russia [RIA Novosti]
29-Dec-13 Woman Suicide Bomber Killed 16 in Volgograd, Russis [VOA News]
27-Nov-13 Berluscony: convicted over tax fraud and ousted from Senate [NYT]
21-Nov-14 Ukraine turned down an association agreement with EU triggering anti-government protests [VOA News, 24-Feb-2014]
21-Nov-13 Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA] closed above 16,000 for the first time [MarketWatch]
16-Nov-13 March Against Mainstream Media
8-Nov-13 Typhoon Haiyan killed ~10,000 people in the Philippines [VOA News, 10-Nov-2013]
8-Nov-13 Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its unsolicited long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of France -- from 'AA+' to 'AA' [S&P Ratings Services]
7-Nov-13 Iraq bombings and attacks hit 5,500 in 2013, a 5-year high [VOS News]
5-Nov-13 Global Million Mask March
4-Nov-13 SAC Capital Advisors to plead guilty to insider trading violations and pay a $1.2 billion penalty [DealBook]
1-Nov-13 Drone strike killed Hakimullah Mehsud, Pakistan Taliban leader [VOA News]
Propitiousness for Terrorism
Terrorism Alert Index -- Return on Violence [ROV]
DEEP RED ALERT is correlated with Potential HIGH PAYOFF for Attacker/HIGH RISK for Defense.
ORANGE 20-Jan-09
Economic Uncertainty
Threat Assessment Model and Forecast ─ What to Monitor
The DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL is entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY. The DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL can be diffused by wise political and economic action or by a market crash; when it is not, TERRORISTS (State and non-State) can exploit the situation to convert it from "POTENTIAL" destructiveness into "ACTUAL" destructiveness.
Monitor very carefully decreases in the EXTREME and VERY HIGH DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIALS, following their peak values. These decreases are measures of the amount of EXTREME and VERY HIGH DESTRUCTIVE "POTENTIALS" that can be converted into EXTREME and VERY HIGH "ACTUAL" or "REAL" TERRORISM, respectively.
The impacts of the following items on ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, on the DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL that is entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, and on IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE or GLOOM , must also be monitored very carefully:
1. U.S. Supreme Court rulings favoring leading investment banks.
2. Legislation favoring big high-tech firms and financial services companies at the expense of smaller firms.
3. Invasion of Privacy.
4. The U.S. debt limit.
5. The subprime/prime mortgage meltdown.
6. "Creative destruction": Delinquency and foreclosure rates.
7. Reductions in the primary credit discount rate and other interest rates.
8. Bailout of structured investment vehicles (SIVs).
9. Downgrading of the rating of bond insurers.
10. Government seizure of Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae).
11. The collapse of hedge funds.
12. Megamergers, record stock market indexes, and irrational exuberance. (The Dow Jones board OK'ed the merger with News Corp. on 17-Jul-07; the MI2 Irrational Exuberance index peaked at 35% on 18-Jul-07; the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 14,000 mark on 19-Jul-07, then tumbled 311.5 points on 26-Jul-07.)
13. Funds injected by central banks (including Term Auction Facilities and market operations allotments to banks) and/or global investments banks.
14. A global market crash.
15. Protests and Strikes.
16. Bailouts of investment banks; infusions of foreign cash into banks.
17. Bailout of the economy: Economic Growth Package.
18. A recession.
19. Attacks on/destabilization of U.S.-backed rulers/leaders. (Assassinations of Lebanese general on 12-Dec-07; assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27-Dec-07; assassination of Col. Riyadh al-Samarrai, founder of the American-backed Sunni Awakening Council in Iraq; resignation of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf on 18-Aug-08.)
20a. A government can take advantage of a TERRORISM RED ALERT and HIGH PROPITIOUSNESS FOR TERRORISM as an OPPORTUNITY to attack its enemies. (Examples: Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq and attack against the PKK in late Feb-08; Israel's attack on Hamas and the killing of Palestinian civilians from 26-Feb-08 through 1-Mar-08.)
20b. Miscalculations can occur if a government attacks its enemies when the TERRORISM ALERT CODE is BLUE or GREEN (CODES BLUE and GREEN mean DISADVANTAGE TO ATTACKER). (Example: Georgia's operations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia resulting in a Russian invasion of Georgia in early Aug-08.)
Obama's First 1898 Days
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