Threat Assessment - Destructive Potential/Terrorism

ORANGE ALERT

High Impact Terrorism: A7D/CI7D Models

Forecast's B

31-Jan-10

Published 1-Feb-10

Threat Assessment on 1-Feb-10 for 1-Feb-10 - 15-Feb-10

The Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty Increases when the Economic Uncertainty Increases. Time Periods with High Destructive Potential Give Rise to Propitious Opportunities for Terrorism. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce Extreme Uncertainty, If Mismanaged, Likely Create Propitious Opportunities for Catastrophic Terrorism. Terrorism Alert Codes RED/GREEN Indicate Advantage/Disadvantage to Attacker.

Charts A1, B1, and C1 Show Historical Data for 2-Jan-10 - 31-Jan-10. Charts A2, B2, and C2 Show Forecasts for 1-Feb-10 - 15-Feb-10 Using the A7D Model. Chart C3 Shows the Confidence Intervals for the Forecasted 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index Using the CI7D Model.

20-Jun-09

ORANGE

20-Jan-09

THREAT SITUATION ON 31-JAN-10

THREAT FORECAST FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM 1-FEB-10 THROUGH 15-FEB-10

Threat Assessment Model and Forecast ─ What to Monitor

Numerical Threat Assesment: Destructive Potential and Terrorism Alert, 1-Feb-10 - 15-Feb-10

The A7D and CI7D Models Are Experimental. They Are Part of a Program to Develop and Test Instruments for Detecting Propitious Opportunities for Low Probability-High Impact Terrorism with 9/11 as the Archetype.

Summary

Legend

Obama's First 378 Days

Detail

1. Destructive Potential (Chart A1)

2. Propitiousness of Opportunity for Terrorism by Threat Level (Chart B2)

3. Maximum Threat Alert (Using the Mean 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index) (Charts C2 and C3)

DPTAe-1-Feb-10

UWI7>>S-C-F