Uncertainty/Terrorism Charts

9/11 What If Simulation

Uncertainty/Likelihood of Terrorism Indices

30-Sep-01

Published 11-Dec-04

Likelihoods of the Threat Levels: History, 1-Jun-01 - 10-Sep-01; 20-Day 'What If' Forecast, 11-Sep-01 - 30-Sep-01

'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.

Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window

Code ORANGE threat level started increasing on 7-Aug-04; code RED threat level on 10-Aug-04. Extremely high economic uncertainty (code X) can be a very bad omen (see chart below); 9/11 was preceded by extremely high economic uncertainty.

Economic and Moral Uncertainties: History, 1-Jun-01 - 10-Sep-01; 20-Day 'What If' Forecast, 11-Sep-01 - 30-Sep-01

'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.

The Macroknow Economic Uncertainty Index climbed to a record 99.2% on 23-Jul-04. A significant increase in the Economic Uncertainty forebodes a significant increase in the destructive potential of possible future terrorist attacks. Note that the Terrorism Alert Indices are derived from the Economic Uncertainty Index and not from the Moral Uncertainty Index. The thresholds for the EXTREME (Code X, RED) and VERY HIGH (Code V, ORANGE) threat level codes for the ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX have been calibrated using two major world events, 9/11 and Israel's incursion into Palestinian territory. 9/11 was preceded by persistent code RED Economic Uncertainty signals, and Israel's incursion by persistent code ORANGE signals.

A3-11-Dec-04