Retrospective Security Alert       9/11 What If Simulation              
  What If Terrorism Distributions             30-Sep-01 Published 11-Dec-04                  
Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level, on 30-Sep-01 Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, on 30-Sep-01
'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care. 'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window. Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window
LEGEND
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 6-Dec-04:
• RED, 76.7%
• ORANGE, 3.3%
• YELLOW, 3.3%
• BLUE, 0.0%
• GREEN, 16.7%.
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 83.3% of the Distribution.		       Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 6-Dec-04: 
• EXTREME (3,000 or More Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% 
• VERY HIGH, 0.0% 
• HIGH, 50.0% 
• SIGNIFICANT (Up to 50 Deaths Per Incident), 43.3% 
• UNCLASSIFIED, 6.7%. 
EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 50.0% of the Distribution.		      
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
Distribution of the Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level: History, 1-Jun-01 - 10-Sep-01; 20-Day 'What If' Forecast, 11-Sep-01 - 30-Sep-01
'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.            
The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.        
Right Arrow: History
Rounded Rectangle: STRATEGIC COUP-D'OEIL - 9/11 The 9/11 attack was preceded by 3 events: 1. The likelihood of the EXTREME Destructive Potential of Terrorism from Economic Uncertainty peaked at 90% 26 days before 9/11 (on 16-Aug-01). 2. Six consecutive 1-D Code RED signals (RRRRRR), four 7-D Code Red signals, and four 7/60-D Code Red signals were recorded immediately before 9/11. 3. The probability of the 1-D Code RED signal surged to 60% 3 days before 9/11 (on 8-Sep-01).
Rounded Rectangle: 'WHAT IF' STRATEGIC COUP-D'OEIL SIMULATED FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER 11, 2001 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2001, AS IT WOULD HAVE BEEN CONDUCTED ON SEPTEMBER 10, 2001. The likelihood of Code RED for the 1-D Terrorism Alert Index which peaked at 60% on 8-Sep-01, would peak again at 60% on 12-Sep-04 if mindshares remained stationary at their 10-Sep-01 levels (see Chart TU-1 above).
Distribution of the Destructive Potential, by Economic Uncertainty Level: History, 1-Jun-01 - 10-Sep-01; 20-Day 'What If' Forecast, 11-Sep-01 - 30-Sep-01
'What If' Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 10-Sep-01 through 30-Sep-01. Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window              
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for 3,000 or more deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).
Right Arrow: History