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  Terrorism Distributions         9/11                  
  Global Security Alert                 10-Sep-01 Published 11-Dec-04                  
Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level, on 10-Sep-01 Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, on 10-Sep-01
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window
LEGEND
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 10-Sep-01:
• RED, 56.7%
• ORANGE, 3.3%
• YELLOW, 3.3%
• BLUE, 3.3%
• GREEN, 33.3%.
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 63.3% of the Distribution.		       Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 10-Sep-01: 
• EXTREME (3,000 or More Deaths Per Incident), 16.7% 
• VERY HIGH, 70.0% 
• HIGH, 13.3% 
• SIGNIFICANT (Up to 50 Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% 
• UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%. 
EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 100.0% of the Distribution.		      
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level, 1-May-01 - 10-Sep-01
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window
The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.
Right Arrow: ?
Rounded Rectangle: STRATEGIC COUP-D'OEIL - 9/11 The 9/11 attack was preceded by 3 events: 1. The likelihood of the EXTREME Destructive Potential of Terrorism from Economic Uncertainty peaked at 90% 26 days before 9/11 (on 16-Aug-01). 2. Six consecutive 1-D Code RED signals (RRRRRR), four 7-D Code Red signals, and four 7/60-D Code Red signals were recorded immediately before 9/11. 3. The probability of the 1-D Code RED signal surged to 60% 3 days before 9/11 (on 8-Sep-01).
Destructive Potential, 1-May-01 - 10-Sep-01
Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for 3,000 or more deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).