| 2008 | 2008 Destructive Potential/Terrorism | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Global Security Alert | 1-Jan-09 | Published 16-Jan-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Destructive Potential Entailed in Econ= omic Uncertainty, 1-Jan-08 - 1-Jan-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Economic Uncertainty Registered 87.8% on 1-Jan-09. The Extreme Destructive "Potential" (Thousands of Deaths per Incident) that Is Entailed= in this Uncertainty Is 0.0%; The Very High Destructive "Potential" (Hundreds of Deaths per Incident) Is 20.0%. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, = by Threat Level, 1-Jan-08 - 1-Jan-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7/60-D Terrorism Alert Index: 1-Jan-08 - 1-Jan-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC
UNCERTAINTY CODES: • EXTREME (Code X) means there is po= tential for thousands of deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)= • SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is po= tential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing). |
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| Distribution
of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Codes GREEN-BLUE=3DAdvantage to Defenders;
YELLOW-RED=3DAdvantage to Attackers) (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on
1-Jan-09: • RED, 56.7% • ORANGE, 3.3% • YELLOW, 6.7% • BLUE, 0.0% • GREEN, 33.3%. Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 66.7% of the Distribution. |
Distribution
of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on
1-Jan-09: • EXTREME (Thousands of Deaths Per Incident), 0.0% • VERY HIGH, 20.0% U124 • HIGH, 23.3% • SIGNIFICANT (Up to 25 Deaths Per Incident), 56.7% • UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%. EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 43.3% of the Distribution. |
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| Copyright © 2001-2009 by Dr. Edward E. = Ayoub. All Rights Reserved. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| A1-16-Jan-09 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UTAP>>S-C-T | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||