MACROKNOW INTELLECTUAL INTELLIGENCE - EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

CONDITIONS FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM

IDEAS AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Macroknow defines catastrophic terrorism as the violent depotentialization of the EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY.

Depotentialization periods follow substantial buildups in economic uncertainty; they are potentially dangerous periods. Attackers can exploit them to unleash destruction: Terrorists then convert "potential" danger into "real/actual" violence.

The Macroknow Intellectual Intelligence (MI2) system identifies "opportunities" for violent depotentialization (potentially dangerous periods) − from an economic perspective; it does not predict catastrophic terrorism.

MI2 was developed and is maintained by the nuclear physicist Dr. Edward E. Ayoub.

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY is derived from measurements of the POWERS that enhance or frustrate people's DESIRES and AVERSIONS.

MI2 has been measuring the intensities of DESIRES, AVERSIONS, and POWERS since 20-Feb-2001.

The DESIRE-AVERSION doublets include:

AUTONOMY: FREEDOM-SLAVERY
ETHICS: GOOD-EVIL
LOGIC: TRUTH-DECEIT.

POWERS are multipolar entities. The POWERS include:

ECONOMY: BANKERS-CAPITALISM-DEBT-MONEY-FREE TRADE
JUSTICE: JUSTICE-LAW
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY: ARITHMETIC-SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY (ARITHMETIC means "Calculative Thinking")
THEOLOGY: RELIGION.

Macroknow research indicates that a PROPITIOUS OPPORTUNITY FOR CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM arises (see time period 2 in the Threat Assessment for 9/11) when the following conditions obtain:

A1: Period 1 features a substantial buildup (around 90% or more) in the EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY (EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL Means potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident);
B2: The OPPORTUNITY FOR CODE RED TERRORISM surges to around 60% or more;
C2: The 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX plunges into deep RED (around -0.3 or less);
Conditions 1 through 3 persist over several consecutive 7-out-of-7 CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS (see the Security Matrix for 9/11).

THREAT ASSESSMENT ON 7-SEP-08

SITUATION ANALYSIS

The EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL (the potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident) climbed to 71.9% on 6-Sep-08.
The CODE-RED PROPITIOUSNESS FOR AN ATTACK can climb to 64.3% on 20-Sep-08.
The Terrorism Alert Index indicates that ATTACKERS STARTED HAVING AN ADVANTAGE OVER DEFENDERS around 5-Sep-08.
The 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicates a DEEP RED ALARM is possible around 16-Sep-08.

7 out of 7 consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS for the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicate CODE RED ALARMS are possible around 7- and 8-Aug-08. This is a major change since 6-Sep-08. The change can be attributed to a report suggesting the seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the U.S. government. The seizure, if viewed as a blow to the U.S. financial system, can act to mitigate a terrorist attack.

A catastrophic attack around the 7th anniversary of 9/11 is probable. Forecasts assume that the current politico-economic situation remains unchanged.

7-Sep-08: Threat Assessment and Security Matrix
Most Recent Threat Assessment and Security Matrix.

THREAT ASSESSMENT ON 6-SEP-08

SITUATION ANALYSIS

The EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL (the potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident) hovered around 71.0% on 5-Sep-08.
The CODE-RED PROPITIOUSNESS FOR AN ATTACK can climb to 69.0% on 20-Sep-08.
The Terrorism Alert Index indicates that ATTACKERS STARTED HAVING AN ADVANTAGE OVER DEFENDERS on 5-Sep-08.
The 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicates a DEEP RED ALARM is possible starting around 15-Sep-08.
7 out of 7 consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS for the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicate CODE RED ALARMS are possible starting around 8-Aug-08.

A catastrophic attack around the 7th anniversary of 9/11 is probable. Forecasts assume that the current politico-economic situation remains unchanged.

6-Sep-08: Threat Assessment and Security Matrix.

THREAT ASSESSMENT ON 5-SEP-08

SITUATION ANALYSIS

The EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL (the potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident) surged to 71.4% on 4-Sep-08, up from 60% on 31-Aug-08.
The CODE-RED PROPITIOUSNESS FOR AN ATTACK is expected to climb to 63.3% on 19-Sep-08.
The forecasted Terrorism Alert Index indicates that ATTACKERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER DEFENDERS as early as 6-Sep-08.
The 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicates a DEEP RED ALARM is possible starting around 16-Sep-08.
7 out of 7 consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS for the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicate CODE RED ALARMS are possible starting around 8-Aug-08.

A catastrophic attack around the 7th anniversary of 9/11 is probable. Forecasts assume that the current politico-economic situation remains unchanged.

5-Sep-08: Threat Assessment and Security Matrix.

THREAT ASSESSMENT ON 4-SEP-08

SITUATION ANALYSIS

The EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL (the potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident) surged to 70% on 3-Sep-08, up from 60% on 31-Aug-08.
The CODE RED PROPITIOUSNESS FOR AN ATTACK is expected to climb to 58.6% on 18-Sep-08.
The forecasted Terrorism Alert Index indicates that ATTACKERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER AUTHORITIES as early as 6-Sep-08.
7 out of 7 consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS for the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicate CODE RED ALARMS are possible starting around 8-Aug-08.

A catastrophic attack around the 7th anniversary of 9/11 is therefore possible. Forecasts assume that the current politico-economic situation remains unchanged.

4-Sep-08: Threat Assessment and Security Matrix.

THREAT ASSESSMENT ON 1-SEP-08

There is currently a substantial buildup (60% as at 31-Aug-08) in EXTREME DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL (the potential for thousands of deaths per terrorist incident).
The CODE RED PROPITIOUSNESS FOR AN ATTACK is expected to climb to 44.8% on 13-Sep-08.
The forecasted Terrorism Alert Index indicates that ATTACKERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER AUTHORITIES after around 7-Sep-08.

A catastrophic attack around the 7th anniversary of 9/11 is therefore possible. However, the hit from hurricane Gustav in Louisiana can act to mitigate against a terrorist attack.

7 out of 7 consecutive CONDITIONAL SECURITY FORECASTS for the 7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX indicate CODE RED ALARMS are possible starting around 7-Aug-08.

1-Sep-08: Threat Assessment and Security Matrix.