21-Day Security Alert Predictions   What If Simulation                
  Likelihood/Destructive Potential of Terrorism - Simulation   21-Jun-05 Published 4-Jun-05  
  POLITICAL ALERT (PART 2 OF 2)              
  The Global Focus on Deceit and Capitalism Is Extreme -- 31-May-05          
  The Mindranks of Deceit and Capitalism on 31-May-05 Were Both Equal to 99.5%; the Economic Uncertainty Was 94%. Should the Mindshares of 31-May-05 Remain Unchanged, a Mismanaged Reduction in the Uncertainty Would Likely Entail a Substantial Increase in Terrorism.  
   
  See Business Opportunity/Threat Warnings.  
Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level, on 21-Jun-05 Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, on 21-Jun-05
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 31-May-05 through 21-Jun-05. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care. What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 31-May-05 through 21-Jun-05. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window. Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window
LEGEND
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 21-Jun-05:   Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 21-Jun-05:   
• RED, 73.3%     • EXTREME (3,000 or More Deaths Per Incident), 0.0%   
• ORANGE, 3.3%     • VERY HIGH, 20.0%   
• YELLOW, 3.3%     • HIGH, 46.7%   
• BLUE, 0.0%     • SIGNIFICANT (Up to 50 Deaths Per Incident), 33.3%   
• GREEN, 20.0%.     • UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%.   
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 80.0% of the Distribution.     EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 66.7% of the Distribution.  
         
           
           
           
           
           
       
Distribution of the Likelihood of Terrorism, by Threat Level: History, 1-Oct-04 - 31-May-05; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 1-Jun-05 - 21-Jun-05
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 31-May-05 through 21-Jun-05. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window.  
The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.  
Right Arrow: History
Oval: RED ALERT
Rounded Rectangle: 'WHAT IF' STRATEGIC COUP-D'OEIL A scenario is a time history generated for "hypothetical" future mindshare distributions. The scenario is a prediction of the “effects” of an assumed mindshare distribution -- specifically, what happens if the most recently measured mindshare distribution persists for 3 weeks. Extrapolated knowledge of the effects of a hypothetical mindshare distribution on future economic and moral uncertainties allows for better understanding and assessment of the severity of the current situation, should it continues ro persist, and for better terrorism preparedness and emergency response. Research results from the Macrogenome Project indicate that high economic uncertainty, if mismanaged by governments or corporations, can be transmuted into propicious opportunities for violence, including terrorism. The potential for destruction is entailed in economic uncertainty; it can vary from SIGNIFICANT to EXTREME. The destructive "potential" becomes destructive "reality" when political and corporate leaders mismanage high levels of economic uncertainty. EXTREME Destructive Potential means there is a "potential" for another 9/11, or more than 3,000 deaths per incident.
Distribution of the Destructive Potential, by Economic Uncertainty Level: History, 1-Oct-04 - 31-May-05; 21-Day 'What If' Forecast, 1-Jun-05 - 21-Jun-05
What If Simulation Assumes a Stationary Mindshare from 31-May-05 through 21-Jun-05. The Forecast Must Be Interpreted with Care.
Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes: Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window    
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for 3,000 or more deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).
Right Arrow: History
Copyright © 2001-2005 by Dr. Edward E. Ayoub. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright © 2001-2005 by Macroknow Inc. All Rights Reserved.  
A1-4-Jun-05  
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