PEOPLE'S STATE OF MIND PRE/POST THE IOWA CAUCUSES ON 3-JAN-08
 
WHY DID OBAMA AND HUCKABEE WIN AND CLINTON AND McCAIN, THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES, LOSE?

PSYCHO-POLITICAL ANALYTICS

The Iowa caucuses played a pivotal role in launching the U.S. presidential election process: Democratic Senator Barack Obama from Illinois outperformed the establishment candidate, Senator Hillary Clinton from New York; and Republican Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, outperformed the establishment candidate Senator John McCain from Arizona.^1-6

What Was People's State of Mind Prior to the Iowa Caucuses?

The psychological state of mind of people around the world during the 7-day time period prior to the Iowa caucuses was as follows:

• People were UNHAPPY (MISERABLE) 100% of the time;
• People were in PAIN 100% of the time;
• People were not IRRATIONAL;
• People were HIGHLY AWARE of RELIGION 42.9% of the time; and
• People focused HIGH ATTENTION on DECEIT 42.9% of the time.

The flawed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the subprime mortgage meltdown, the high concentration of wealth, the increasing wealth gap between the rich and the poor, the extreme volatility of markets, the super high economic uncertainty, the massive illegal migrations, the enormous debts, the bankruptcies and foreclosures, etc. ─ all conspired to create EXTREME UNEASE and GENERAL MISERY. For far too many, the actions of the U.S. government and the actions of giant corporations have been inconsistent with the citizens' "general will." The government was perceived as serving the interests of the super rich ─ at the expense of the middle and lower classes. The "American Dream" became increasingly perceived as nothing but a deceitful, phony dream . . . The Iowa caucuses were an opportunity for citizens to INTERVENE. On the day prior to the Iowa caucuses, people focused their HIGHEST ATTENTION on FREEDOM; during the caucuses, on 3-Jan-08, people focused their HIGHEST ATTENTION on SLAVERY. RELIGION dominated people's awareness on the day prior to and during the caucuses. These observations explain, in part, the victories of Senator Obama and former Governor Huckabee (a Baptist Minister), over the establishment candidates. One negative observation: Obama's and Huckabee's victories did not change significantly people's HOPE (the expectation of future HAPPINESS); people remained essentially HOPELESS.

What Was People's State of Mind After the Iowa Caucuses?

During the 7 days Pre/Post the Iowa caucuses:

• UNHAPPINESS decreased from 100% to 66.7%;
• HOPE remained stuck at 0%;
• PAIN decreased from 100% to 71.4%;
• IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE increased from 0% to 4.8%;
• RELIGION-AWARENESS remained constant at 42.9%;
• HIGH ATTENTION focused on DECEIT decreased from 42.9% to 14.3%;
• But HIGH ATTENTION focused on BANKERS increased from 28.6% to 42.9%.

The tables below summarize our key findings. Three Pre/Post Iowa periods are investigated: 3-Jan-08 (0:00 AM PT) ±1 day, ±7 days, and ±30 days.

 

EMOTIONS PRE/POST IOWA CAUCUSES
-60 Days	-30 Days	-7 Days	-1 Day	3-Jan-08 (00:00 AM PT)	+1 Day	+7 Days	+30 Days	+60 Days
		100.0%		Unhappy		66.7%
	73.3%					57.1%
		66.7%		Angry		33.3%
	33.3%					28.6%
		33.3%		Troubled		33.3%
	13.3%					7.1%
		0.0%		Confused		0.0%
	26.7%					21.4%
		0.0%		Hopeful		0.0%
	6.7%					7.1%

 

FEELINGS PRE/POST IOWA CAUCUSES
-60 Days	-30 Days	-7 Days	-1 Day	3-Jan-08 (00:00 AM PT)	+1 Day	+7 Days	+30 Days	+60 Days
		100.0%		Pain		71.4%
	70.8%					66.7%
		50.0%		Hostile		21.4%
	33.3%					26.7%
		33.3%		Entangled		42.9%
	16.7%					30.0%

 

IRRATIONALITY PRE/POST IOWA CAUCUSES
-60 Days	-30 Days	-7 Days	-1 Day	3-Jan-08 (00:00 AM PT)		+1 Day	+7 Days	+30 Days	+60 Days
		Exuberance  0.0%				Exuberance 4.8%
	Gloom 2.5%					Exuberance 9.5%

 

HIGH AWARENESS PRE/POST IOWA CAUCUSES
-60 Days	-30 Days	-7 Days	-1 Day	3-Jan-08 (00:00 AM PT)	+1 Day	+7 Days	+30 Days	+60 Days
			100.0%	Religion	100.0%
		42.9%				42.9%
	46.7%					50.0%
		28.6%		Debt		0.0%
	23.3%					16.7%
		23.3%		Deceit		13.3%
	20.0%					26.7%
		0.0%		Money		14.3%
	20.0%					36.7%

 

HIGH ATTENTION PRE/POST IOWA CAUCUSES
-60 Days	-30 Days	-7 Days	-1 Day	3-Jan-08 (00:00 AM PT)	+1 Day	+7 Days	+30 Days	+60 Days
			100.0%	Freedom	0.0%
		14.3%				0.0%
	13.3%					6.7%
			0.0%	Slavery	100.0%
		14.3%				28.6%
	10.0%					13.3%
		42.9%		Deceit		14.3%
	53.3%					16.7%
		28.6%		Bankers		42.9%
	23.3%					16.7%
		28.6%		Arithmetic		28.6%
	20.0%					26.7%
		0.0%		Money		14.3%
	20.0%					23.3%

 

Dr. Edward E. Ayoub
Toronto
February 19, 2008

 

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¹ United States presidential election, 2008. Wikipedia, 18-Feb-08, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008.

² Race for the White House: Banking on Becoming President. Center for Responsive Politics, 2008, http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp.

³ Election Center 2008: Caucuses and Primaries. CNN, 15-Feb-08, http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008.

⁴ Election 08. Yahoo! News, 19-Feb-08, http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008.

⁵ The Presidential Field: Full Coverage of the 2008 Candidates. Washington Post, 2008, http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates.

⁶ Election Guide 2008: Primary Season Election Results. The New York Times, 19-Feb-08, http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html.